SkyWatch Weather India🇮🇳 Monsoon 2024 forecast for India.

Disclaimer: This forecast was first issued on our X A/c @SkywatchUpdates on 1 January 2024

Most awaited
Monsoon 2024 1st Report is here.

Kindly go through it and support this post as it required a lot of hard work, research, analysis to publish this.

2nd and Final report in March and April respectively#Monsoon2024 #2024NewYear pic.twitter.com/uOypuktjrQ
— SkyWatch Weather India 🇮🇳 (@SkyWatchUpdates) January 1, 2024

Starting analysis

El Nino/ La Nina: SST anomally of Pacific ocean seen +0.4© by May 2024, this indicates that by monsoon season, June or July, Enso will turn neutral.
IOD: IOD is seen to increase after May 2024 with Indian Ocean SST anomally +0.4©, indicates that by June or July 2024, Positive IOD may develop once again.

Summary of Monsoon in India

As Enso is seen neutral, Monsoon 2024 is likely to remain neutral in most parts of India.
Long Period Average of Monsoon may end up at 98% LPA.

Monsoon forecast

Above Normal
Indication of Positive IOD is seen. This may lead to an above normal monsoon in Coast Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra including Mumbai, S. Gujrat, Saurashtra and Kutch region. Parts of Coastal Odisha, South-Central Chhatisgarh and MadhyaPradesh including Indore, Bhopal areas as well as Southern Rajasthan will also see above normal rains due to back 2 back monsoon lpa’s. Western parts of Bihar and Sikkim may also see above normal rains.

Normal
Most parts of India to see normal rainfall including Delhi, Haryana, UP, N and Central Rajasthan, Haryana.
Parts of Interior Maharashtra to also see Normal Rains and Assam may also witness near average rainfall.

Below Normal
Parts of Leh,N/NE Himachal, some parts of Interior karnataka may see below average rains. Leeward side of Patkai hills in Manipurz Nagaland, Mizoram lie in rain shadow region may witness below normal rain which may effect the state total.

Rainfall Pattern: Though there will be plenty of rains, rainfall pattern likely to be bit disturbed, its likely that most of the monthly total will be dumped in just 4-5 days whenever MJO enters the favourable basin. This pattern will mostly seen in West Coast and Himalayan region eg Uttarakhand.

Conclusion: Most parts of India to witness Near Average Rainfall due to Neutral Enso. West Coast may see Above Normal rains, some rain shadow regions of NE India may witness below normal rains which may effect the state average.

Rainfall Distribution Map👇