SkyWatch Weather India🇮🇳
CycloneGenesis forecast for Bay of Bengal for year 2024
The given forecast was given on our X ac @SkyWatchUpdates yesterday that is on 7 February
Date
Forecast validity: Feb 2024- December 2024
Subject: CycloneGenesis forecast for Bay of Bengal for Year 2024
Contents:
1 Synopsis of Atmospheric conditions.
2 Month wise Cyclone probability.
3 Cities classified in zones with respect to effects of Cyclone.
Classification
Zone 1: Light-Mod effect (<45%)
Zone 2: Mod-Heavy effect (<70%)
Zone 3: Heavy effects (>70%)
- Synopsis
Pic 1: IOD Forecast
Pic 2: ENSO Forecast
It is observed that there is a gradual decrease in ENSO.
Enso Forecast as per me:
El Nino (jan – april)
Neutral enso (may-july)
Weak la nina (july/august-december)
IOD forecast as per me:
Weak positive IOD ( jan-march)
Neutral IOD (April-June)
Weak positive IOD( JUNE- September)
Moderate positive IOD (SEPTEMBER – DECEMBER
- Cyclone Probability in Bay of Bengal
Based on atmospheric conditions, it looks like Bay of Bengal may host at least 3 proper Cyclones this year with highest probability in Summer-Pre Monsoon, July, September-November months.
Month Wise Data:
January: N/A
February: 0%
March: 2%
April: 32%
May: 60%
June: 55%
July: 45%
August: 30%
September: 45%
October: 40%
November: 40%
December: 35%
- City wise classification
Zone 1
Rameshwaram
Karaikal
Puducherry
Chennai
SriHariKota
Nellore
Agartala
Aizawl
Zone 2
Ongole
Machilipatnam
Kakinada
Kolkata
Zone 3
Digha
Balasore
Sundarbans
Paradeep
Konark
Puri
Brahmapur
SriKakulam
Vizag
Note: This is the first time we are giving such a long range forecast. We are confident about this forecast.
For live updates in any such situation, you may connect with us on our X (formerly Twitter) A/C: @SkyWatchUpdates
Regards,
Study, Analysis and Forecasted by
SkyWatch Weather India🇮🇳
